30^th November 2009

Equity Index

Overview

Last week should have been relatively quiet due to the US Thanksgiving holiday but thanks to the concerns surrounding Dubai this proved not to be the case. After significant losses were seen in Europe on Thursday as the news broke, the return of US players on Friday restored order and US and European markets stabilised. (more…)

27^th November 2009

Macro- Overview

Focus on Dubai

The last two days has seen news that Dubai World (the investment company owned by the state of Dubai) asked its creditors for a freeze on the repayment of debt. This effectively has raised concerns of a potential state default. Global risk trades have taken a battering with equities, commodities and high yielding carry trades have taken significant hits.

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26^th November 2009

Currency Overview

Focus on Spot EUR/USD (Euro)

Having been range-bound between the 1.4800 and 1.5000 handles in the last 2 weeks, the market broke higher yesterday to trade up to the 1.5100 handle on the back of renewed USD weakness after the FOMC meeting minutes on Tuesday. (more…)

25^th November 2009

Commodity Overview

Focus on Oil & Gold

Over the last five days we have seen oil continue to trade sideways; USD weakness and ongoing equity strength have provided support. Trading conditions have been subdued as the market appears to be preparing for a breakout.

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24^th November 2009

Bond Futures

Overview

Over the last five days the Bund has ground higher reaching November highs at 122.70. The US Ten Year has for the first time in the last couple of months underperformed in comparison merely holding onto gains achieved in previous weeks. Last week we had the release of US CPI and PPI data both of these were broadly in line and failed to shock the fixed income markets.

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23^rd November 2009

Equity Index

Overview

Last Monday the S&P 500 future posted fresh yearly highs hitting 1112.25 before struggling for the rest of the week, finally giving up all the gains achieved on Friday, to end the week almost flat. In Europe equity indices struggled in comparison with both the DAX 30 and Eurostoxx 50 failing to post new yearly highs before losing a lot of ground on Thursday and Friday to finish significantly down on the week.  (more…)

20^th November 2009

Commercial Real Estate, Small Banks and Small Business

As we have discussed recently, commercial real estate (CRE) remains a concern for financial markets as a whole. With many large and small banks still holding CRE assets, including potentially explosive Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS), the anaemic state of the real economy has the potential to depress economic recovery further.

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19^th November 2009

Currency Overview

Focus on Spot AUD/USD (Aussie)

The last week has seen the Aussie challenge previous YTD highs at 0.9330, driven by the continued flight into carry trades against the USD. This trade has fed into markets across the board, and the Aussie remains one of the major indicators of global risk appetite, and therefore is most vulnerable to sentiment shifts.

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18^th November 2009

Commodity Overview

Focus on Oil & Gold

Over the last five days we have seen oil continue to trade sideways, supported by ongoing equity strength. The gold market has continued to rally taking out recent highs at 1144.70 before topping out at 1148.40 yesterday.  (more…)

17^th November 2009

Bond Futures

Overview

Last week was quiet in terms of economic releases although we did see 3 large auctions in the US. Demand for these was seen as satisfactory by market participants and commentators although they provided little more than volatility for short term participants. Over the last five days we have seen the Bund predominantly trade sideways with the exception of yesterday morning when fears surrounding Greek government bonds provided the stimulus for an aggressive 60 tick drive higher.

A similar sideways trading pattern has been seen in the US Ten Year although a significant rally was seen last night on the back of some dovish comments out of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

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