16^th November 2009

Equity Index

Overview

Last week the S&P 500 future continued its recent bull run posting new yearly highs at 1103.25. The fact that so little fresh economic data was released seemed to provide perfect conditions for the market to simply drift higher. Last week the Dow also posted fresh highs at 10342, significantly breaking back above the 10,000 level.

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13^th November 2009

Macro Economic Overview

Global Interest Rates and Labour Markets, and Bonds

Last week saw the release of the US Employment report. The report showed that although the pace of job losses has slowed down, unemployment rates continue to climb. Last Friday’s release saw unemployment rate jump to 10.2%, the highest level since the early 1980s. On the back of this we saw participants scale back their expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Fed.

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12^th November 2009

Currency Overview

Focus on Spot EUR/USD (Euro)

The last week has seen the Euro resume its up-trend after the prior week’s corrective price action. The market has stalled somewhat around the 1.5050 handle; however USD weakness remains the main market theme.

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10^th November 2009

Bond Futures

Overview

Last week a lot of fresh information became available to traders, the BOE extended their QE programme by £25 billion, we also got the latest jobs data which was unspectacular except for a leap in unemployment to 10.2%. We also got the latest statements out of the central banks, generally indicating they were happy with the way the economy was recovering but were a long way off implementing an exit strategy. The overall reaction to this information last week was mixed, Bunds dipped as low as 120.66 where the US Ten Year proved far more resilient, (in keeping with the recent trend) as it recovered the majority of early week losses to finish only marginally down.

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11^th November 2009

Commodity Overview

Focus on Oil & Gold

Over the last five days we have seen oil continue to trade sideways supported by returning equity strength primarily lead by USD weakness. Gold has sustained its bullish trend breaking above $1100 late last week.

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9^th November 2009

Equity Index

Overview

Last week the S&P 500 future managed to post 5 green daily candles reaching highs of 1069.50 in the wake of the release of Non-farm Payrolls. Earlier in the week equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic had reacted positively to reassurance out of the central banks that stimulus would not be withdrawn before a noticeable pickup in fundamental data was seen.

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6^th November 2009

US Employment Report Preview

Non-Farm payrolls are traditionally seen as one of the most significant pieces of data on the economic calendar. It usually takes place on the first Friday of the trading calendar every month. The potential to move markets is large, although the excitement over its significance can sometimes be misplaced. Today we shall see this report released at 13.30 BST. The expectation is for 175,000 jobs lost last month, and the unemployment rate is expected at 9.9%

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5^th November 2009

Currency Overview

Focus on Spot EUR/USD (Euro) and Risk appetite.

The Euro has trended lower in the last 2 week. A sharp pull-back in risk appetite across equity and commodity markets has provided a short-term bid for the USD, leading the Euro and high yielding currencies lower. However the market remains interestingly poised at the moment following the US FOMC rate decision yesterday.

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3^rd November 2009

Bond Futures

Overview

Over the last five days we have seen an increasing degree of volatility in the Bund and despite messy trading it has posted gains of almost 1 point. The performance of the US Ten Year was more impressive as it capitalised on equity weakness in rallying almost 2 points at one stage.

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