22^nd December 2009

Bond Futures

Overview

Over the last five days we have seen the Bond futures continue to trade in a sideways range. The Bund future briefly spiked through the supporting range last week, only to turn around and retest around its recent high prints. T-Notes have resumed their steady downtrend during the same period, having briefly tested around the 118.000 handle. (more…)

21^st December 2009

Equity Index

Overview

Equity markets have continued to hold predominately within the horizontal channel that has contained them since mid-November. This represents the 1080.00-1085.00 to 1110.00-1112.00 areas on the S&P 500 futures. The EuroStoxx and Dax futures, both briefly spiked up through their channel highs on last week’s FOMC policy announcement, however have come back into the channel since. 2930 and 5900.0 are the channel highs for the EuroStoxx and Dax futures respectively. Equity markets have shown surprising resilience in spite of the unwinding of carry trades against the USD. (more…)

17^th December 2009

Currency Overview

Focus on Spot EUR/USD (Euro)

This last week has seen the Euro trend sharply lower again, taking out key support levels to the 1.4300 handle. The USD has been on a good up-trend in recent weeks, on the back of participants scaling forward expectations of Fed policy tightening. Carry trades against the USD are also being unwound at a sharp rate, with the Aussie and Kiwi taking a hit of late. (more…)

16^th December 2009

Commodity Overview

Focus on Oil & Gold

Over the last 7 days we have seen oil continue to trend lower in-line with the rally in the USD. The market briefly pressed down below the $69.00 handle, and has since bounced back to the $71.00 mark. During the same time gold has also traded sharply off its recent record highs of $1226.56 to briefly print down to $1111.00. (more…)

15^th December 2009

Bond Futures

Overview

Over the last five days we have seen the Bond futures pull back from last week’s highs as fears over a potential government debt crises subside for the moment. This has been in-line with equity markets which have recovered strongly from their respective lows. (more…)

14^th December 2009

Equity Index

Overview

Price action early last week saw equity markets sell-off from their recent high prints amid concern over government debt concerns. Greece had its debt ratings cut to BBB+ by Moody’s, and Spain was placed on credit watch negative by Standard and Poors. The state of Dubai also had its ratings downgraded. However a gradual recovery in the latter part of the week means that equity indices are finely poised going into the Christmas and New Year break. (more…)

11^th December 2009

Currency Overview

Focus on Spot EUR/USD (Euro)

After making a “double top” at 1.5142 last week, the Euro has trended lower. This has been in-line with broad USD strength as risk appetite in markets has turned lower on the back of the uncertain outlook of world economies after key ratings downgrades of Dubai and Greece. (more…)

10^th December 2009

Macro Overview

Global Government Fiscal Crises

The phenomenal growth of government debt in recent months, due to governments pouring money into the economy and banking system to aid economic recovery, has fuelled the risk that many governments may not be able to meet their obligations. Events this week have caused a dramatic turn in market risk appetite. Further concerns about the UAE and the downgrade of Greece have seen risk markets turn off recent highs. Yesterday also saw Spain being placed on watch negative by Standard and Poors. (more…)

9^th December 2009

Commodity Overview

Focus on Oil & Gold

Over the last five days we have seen oil give up over $5 of gains as USD strength has come to the forefront on the back of strong payrolls data. The same reasoning can be used to explain a near $100 pullback in the price of Gold off recent highs. (more…)

8^th December 2009

Bond Futures

Overview

Over the last five days we have seen the Government Bond futures under pressure as fears surrounding Dubai waned and a strong payrolls number increased fears surrounding the timing of monetary policy unwinding. This week could be relatively quiet in comparison but it is worth noting there are several large US supply auctions and that the German bond futures roll today. (more…)