Futechs Nonfarm Payrolls Preview 9th March 2012
Friday, March 9th, 201213.30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Expectation 210K Previous 243K Range (125K, 275K)
The bulk of the range estimates are between
180K-240K.
The start of this year has seen US largely been stronger than expected. Wednesday’s ADP, although in-line with expectations points towards a solid number for NFPs today. At the same time the employment indices in the ISM data also points towards a solid to strong number today. Several sources have touted that the number may find strength today due to unseasonably warm weather effects. However, since 2010, a NFP number of greater than 200k has been followed up the next month with a rather disappointing number, this is something to watch out for. The Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged but has only been decreasing over the last few months as a result of people dropping out of labour market participation, which around record low levels at he moment.
Risk markets have started the year very strong and we have seen further strength going into today’s numbers. Notably, we have started to hear talk that the Fed are getting close to implementing another round of asset purchases. This was in a WSJ report earlier this week. With respect to market participants now expecting some form of further easing to occur, possibly even next week, one can make an argument that a weaker than expected NFP number may elicit a contrarian risk on effect after the initial kneejerk reaction is out of the way with. On the other hand a stronger number is unlikely to cause a risk off reaction on the logic of no further stimulus.
13.30 Change in Private Payrolls
Expectation 225K Previous 257K Range (120K, 290K)
13.30 Unemployment rate
Expectation 8.3% Previous 8.3% Range (8.1%, 8.5%)
