30th August 2011
Bond Overview

The German Bund markets have seen choppy trade over the last week. The market has eased somewhat from the recent high prints as risk markets have looked to recover over this period. However, Eurozone issues remain supportive of the market on dips lower which has manifested itself over the last 2 sessions.

Thoughts from the Trading Floor

From a technical perspective, German Bunds have potentially staged a key weekly reversal. The market has recovered from firm support at 3.5%, which coincided with the 119.85-95 area. The market is trading around the 2.16% yield mark, having made a high in price around at the 2.03% yield mark last week. The market has seen somewhat of a pullback from here, although remains well supported above the 134.46-54 area, which is just below the 2.2% yield mark. As long as the market remains firmly below 2.2% yields, the market looks well set to target the all time lows in yields around the 2.03% mark and the significant 2.00% yield level. Bears will need to target a break of the 133.79-88 level if they are to make any headway. A close above the 2.5% yield level may then signal a further sharp deterioration in prices for those looking for a medium to long term swing in trend.

The end of last week saw euphoria into the risk markets as participants anticipate Bernanke’s remarks of holding an extended FOMC meeting in September as a sign that he may signal a fresh round of policy easing. As a result equity markets have recovered sharply from the deterioration witnessed heading into the Jackson Hole speech. As a result, Bunds continued to ease form recent high prints, with the market testing down to the 134.18 level yesterday. This morning, the spotlight has fallen back on to the Eurozone debt issues which has seen Bunds break sharply higher, recovering a big chunk of the last 2 days of losses. Should this bid activity continue, the market targets the highs made on Friday, around the 135.84 level, although a trend line for the daily bull flag lies around the 135.70 mark. A move through these levels will again target the 2.00-2.03% yield mark. With continued disturbances in the Eurozone, including a potential backing out of some of the harsher austerity measures by Italy and the scramble to secure collateral form Greece, the Bund should remain supported on dips.

Bull View

Bulls will need to protect the 133.79-88 level if they are to maintain upside momentum. A day close today above the 134.77 level will also ensure that bulls remain strong.

Bear View

Bears will need to protect the 136.18-26 and 2.00% yield levels. If this is achieved they need a move back below the 133.79 level in coming days in order to capitalise.

Futex View

We remain bullish the bond. We would back the Eurozone crisis to quicken in pace going forward as we fast approach the end game this year.

26th July 2011
Bond Overview

The German Bund markets have seen very volatile trade over the last week. The market moved sharply higher leading into the new Greece bailout agreement heading into the end of the last week, however has recovered impressively since then to trade around the 128.50 handle this morning.

Thoughts from the Trading Floor

From a technical perspective, German Bunds have potentially staged a key weekly reversal. The market has recovered from firm support at 3.5%, which coincided with the 119.85-95 area. The market is trading around the 2.74% yield mark, having made a high in price around at the 2.50% yield mark earlier this month. The market has seen a deep pullback to the 2.94% mark towards the end of last week and recovered impressively since then. The lows, in price terms, last week just below the 126.50 handle is a key support area and the market found firm buyers around here. Thus the market skew remains short to medium term bullish above here. If sellers are to find their feet again, they must look to take this area out. Otherwise, a move back towards the 129.30 level seems the most likely on the cards. Today may be a key day in terms of which way the market may find firm momentum heading into the rest of the week. A day close above yesterday’s highs at 128.45 may signal further. Bears must look to protect this from occurring.

The recent days’ have seen a stark volatility in the peripheral debt markets. Last week’s announcement of further aid measures for Greece and the establishment of a ‘firewall’ around the rest of the periphery saw a dramatic flight into risk assets across the board. Although it remains to be seen whether these moves can be sustained as they may only be a brief respite before further deterioration occurs in the coming weeks. We have already seen somewhat of a sell-off in Spanish and Italian debt markets over the last 2-3 days, a sign that investors remain sceptical of the measures that were out into place last week. Italian BTPs have since given back much of the strong gains seen last week. This has resulted in peripheral linked equity markets underperforming the German Dax index to a large extent. Over the recent weeks we have started to see a quickening of pace in the peripheral debt turmoil. Markets are now quite keen to give back any euphoric moves quite quickly, as opposed to a few months ago where the moves on the back of bailouts and other new measures would persist for several weeks. This market behaviour should keep the bunds well supported.

Bull View

Bulls will need to protect the 126.39-64 level if they are to maintain upside momentum. A day close today above the 128.45 level will also ensure that bulls remain strong.

Bear View

Bears will need to protect the 128.45-55 level. If this is achieved they need a move back below the 126.39-64 level in coming days in order to capitalise.

Futex View

We remain bullish the bond. We would back the Eurozone crisis to quicken in pace going forward as we fast approach the end game this year.

5th July 2011
Bond Overview

The German Bund markets have sold off sharply over the last week, making a low at 125.22 last week as the euphoria from the easing of the Greek crisis allowed risk-on trades to prevail over most asset classes. Greek 10yr yields have moved in back to the 16% mark and easing has also been observed in the other peripherals.

Thoughts from the Trading Floor

From a technical perspective, German Bunds have potentially staged a key weekly reversal. The market has recovered from firm support at 3.5%, which coincided with the 119.85-95 area. However, the market has traded back to the 3.00% mark having traded to as low as 2.82% over a week ago. The move back to the 3% mark signifies a potentially serious technical deterioration of the short-term bullish run higher that the market has had since making the April lows. The last 2 days has seen the market stabilise somewhat from the capitulation sell-off seen at the end of last week. However, below the 125.76-84 area the market remains vulnerable to further selling pressure. This is especially the case as the market has left a potential outside week reversal pattern based on last week’s actions. If bears can take the market through last week’s 125.22 prints, then we would expect further strong selling to enter the market. Bulls will need the market back above the 125.76-84 area with a strong close above here in order to stem the bearish flows for the moment. Thus the next 2-3 days will be crucial.

Thursday sees the usual ECB monetary policy announcement with the accompanying press conference. The ECB is expected to interest hikes rates by 25 b.p. on Thursday to 1.5%. In the long term this should continue to pressure the periphery especially as the major part of the reason they are struggling with their debt levels is because economic growth has really stagnated. However as we wait for this longer term scenario to play out, the major focus for the bund market will be on gauging how aggressive the rate tightening cycle the ECB is on. At the moment it would seem the ECB is on course for tightening every three months. Thus we will see what the press conference brings on Thursday. If the ECB ratchet up their inflation rhetoric at the next meeting, it may signal a more aggressive stance going forward. On the off chance we see another “strong vigilance” statement come from the ECB, it may show a very aggressive stance and catch the markets on the hop.

Bull View

Bulls will need to protect the 125.22 level if they are to prevent another week of sharp deteriorations in the market. If they are to stabilise after the recent sell-off, they will need a day close back above the 125.76-84 area.

Bear View

Bears will need to protect the 127.76-84 level. They have the upper hand, by achieving a move back through the 2.94-96% yield mark and will need to capitalise with a break of the recent low prints at 125.22.

Futex View

Above the 2.94-96% yield mark we are bearish the Bund. A further deterioration may mean that the medium-long term trend lower which started in August 2010 is resuming.

28th June 2011
Bond Overview

The German Bund markets have continued to move higher over the last week. The market is now trading above the 127.00 handle and below the key 2.96-2.94 yield area. The issues surrounding the Eurozone debt crisis and headwinds faced by global economies continue to provide a supporting bid for the market.

Thoughts from the Trading Floor

From a technical perspective, German Bunds have potentially staged a key weekly reversal. The market has recovered from firm support at 3.5%, which coincided with the 119.85-95 area, and has closed in on the 3.00% yield level. This is a crucial medium term pivot for the market. If prices can continue to remain above the 2.94-96% yield level, the market signals that it may have turned in the medium term to a firm bullish stance. The short-term perspective has definitely turned bullish and with prices above the 2.96-2.94 yield area, the market has turned medium term bullish. Although we may see some choppy volatility heading into key events this week including the Greek austerity vote tomorrow and the quarter end on Thursday. The end of the week and start of next week shall provide clear technical confirmation. First support for the market lies around today’s lows between the 1.2659-73 area. Bears will need a close below here if they are to effect a trend change. Above here bulls remain firm and should provide decent support on dips.

Tomorrow sees the important vote by the Greek parliament on further austerity measures. The event risk here is high as a failure to vote through the austerity measures effectively means that Greece should not receive the ext trance of aid form the EU and IMF. This is likely to lead to a chain of very negative consequences regarding the Eurozone debt crises. There has been talk that the Eurozone nations are preparing a potential plan B if the Greek vote does not go through, to cushion against a potential cascading of losses that may hit the European banks. Although this does in fact make it more likely that the Greeks will not accept the new round of austerity package being, or wrangle for more lenience. Risk markets rallied last week heading into the Greek PM Confidence vote and we may see something similar leading into tomorrow’s vote.

Bull View

Bulls will need to protect the 126.59-73 level if they are to build a base for further short-term bullish action. The market has now built value above here, and thus any deterioration to back below here may be significantly worrying for bulls.

Bear View

Bears will need to protect the 127.57 highs made yesterday. The market has made a significant breach of the 2.94-96 yield area and thus a move back above here will be required soon to prevent another deterioration of the medium term down-trend.

Futex View

We are short term bullish the bund and have started to change our medium term stance to bullish also. Much will depend on the outcome of where the market trades at the close this week as to whether the market can sustain the current move higher.

21st June 2011
Bond Overview

The German Bund markets have continued to see consolidation over the last week, albeit with an upward trajectory. The market made a high last week around the key 126.50-62 area. The Eurozone peripheral situation remains a worry for markets and has kept the Bund firm despite the strength seen in risk over the last 2 days.

Thoughts from the Trading Floor

From a technical perspective, German Bunds have potentially staged a key weekly reversal. The market has recovered from firm support at 3.5%, which coincided with the 119.85-95 area, and has closed in on the 3.00% yield level. This is a crucial medium term pivot for the market. If prices can continue through the 2.94-96% yield level, the market signals that it may have turned in the medium term to a firm bullish stance. Although we would expect the market to be relatively choppy around this level until we can get a firm confirmation. The market is also interestingly poised in the short-term. The 2.96% yield level is the 38.2% retracement of the move from the August 2010 yield lows to the recent yield highs at 3.5%. This area remains important for the short-term. Despite multiple attempts to breach this area the market has stalled, although it has been unable break support around the 126.00 handle and thus is likely to push higher soon.

Tonight sees an important vote of confidence for the Greek PM by the Greek parliament. The condition for the Greeks to receive the full allotment of the next trance of aid form the EU and IMF depend on whether Greece can pass the next round of austerity measures and thus this vote of confidence is important. If, as expected, it passes without any issues and the Greeks pass new austerity measures it is likely that the Greeks will also receive a new bailout package to supplement their existing package. There has been talk of this being around $150 bln. Thus if the vote of confidence passes we may see Bunds have a deep retreat from the current levels. However, over recent days we have seen a side story with the other peripheral bonds taking a hit. Portuguese 10yr bond yields hit Euro lifetime highs. Thus it seems that the markets have been pricing in a contagion risk and those peripheral bonds are likely to come under pressure regardless of the conclusion reached with regards to Greece. Also, of more concerning, we have started to see interbank lending rates edge higher raising fears of a credit crunch type scenario. This needs to be monitored very closely. These factors should be supportive of Bunds on deep retracements lower.

Bull View

Bulls will need to protect the 124.37 level if they are to build a base for further short-term bullish action. The market has now built value above here, and thus any deterioration to back below here may be significantly worrying for bulls.

Bear View

Bears will need to protect the 126.62 level. The market has yet to make a convincing breach of the 2.94%-2.96% yield area. If this is achieved they will need a swift move to back below the 124.37 level in order to signal that the recent move higher was potentially short-term corrective action.

Futex View

We are bearish the German Bund in the medium- long term. The market has settled into a steady rhythm of weekly lower highs and lower lows since making the August 2010 highs. However, the ongoing issues in the Eurozone leave us to believe that a good short-term run higher is likely. If the bunds breach the 2.94-96% yield level or if the Eurozone debt issues deteriorate further we should see the medium term outlook adjust accordingly.

14th June 2011
Bond Overview

The German Bund markets have continued to see further upside over the last week, taking out the highs made on the US NFP numbers thus marking fresh 20-day highs for the contract. The Sep’11 Bund contract has pared back a little having made highs at 126.11 yesterday.

Thoughts from the Trading Floor

From a technical perspective, German Bunds have potentially staged a key weekly reversal. The market has recovered from firm support at 3.5%, which coincided with the 119.85-95 area, and has closed in on the 3.00% yield level. This is a crucial medium term pivot for the market. If prices can continue through the 2.94-96% yield level, the market signals that it may have turned in the medium term to a firm bullish stance. Although we would expect the market to be relatively choppy around this level until we can get a firm confirmation. The market is also interestingly poised in the short-term. The 2.96% yield level is the 38.2% retracement of the move from the August 2010 yield lows to the recent yield highs at 3.5%. This area remains important for the short-term.

Last Thursday saw Bunds surge higher following the ECB press conference despite the ECB confirming a strong vigilance stance, thus signalling that they will hike interest rates in July. The buying seen following the press conference also coincided with peripheral bonds taking a hit as markets fear that the ECB hikes will hurt the periphery. Also risk markets continued to come under-pressure going into the weekend and then yesterday as well. This would suggest that the overriding driver for the market seems to remain the risk-on/off theme. Also the act that the market was unable to even trade down to the lows posted around the 124.37 level lends credibility to the idea that the market is in a firmly short-term bullish phase. However the market has again failed to take out the 2.96% yield mark, making a low around 2.4% before giving back gains and whilst this level holds, the market remains within the medium term downtrend that it settled in going starting from August/September 2010.

Bull View

Bulls will need to protect the 124.37 level if they are to build a base for further short-term bullish action. The market has now built value above here, and thus any deterioration to back below here may be significantly worrying for bulls.

Bear View

Bears will need to protect the 126.00-11 level, which coincides with the 2.94-96% yield level. If this is achieved they will need a swift move to back below the 124.37 level in order to signal that the recent move higher was potentially short-term corrective action.

Futex View

We are bearish the German Bund in the medium- long term. The market has settled into a steady rhythm of weekly lower highs and lower lows since making the August 2010 highs. However, the ongoing issues in the Eurozone leave us to believe that a good short-term run higher is likely. If the bunds breach the 2.94-96% yield level or if the Eurozone debt issues deteriorate further we should see the medium term outlook adjust accordingly.

31st May 2011
Bond Overview

Bond markets have rallied firmly over the last week responding to the continued jitters emanating from the European periphery and the risk aversion trades seen across risk assets across the board. Last week saw bunds cross the 3.00% yield level to make lows at 2.968%. The market has returned to trading around 3% this morning.

Thoughts from the Trading Floor

From a technical perspective, German Bunds have potentially staged a key weekly reversal. The market has recovered from firm support at 3.5%, which coincided with the 119.85-95 area, and has closed in on the 3.00% yield level. This is a crucial medium term pivot for the market. If prices can continue through the 3.00% yield level, the market signals that it may have turned in the medium term to a firm bullish stance. Although we would expect the market to be relatively choppy around this level until we can get a firm confirmation. The market is also interestingly poised in the short-term. The 2.96% yield level is the 38.2% retracement of the move from the August 2010 yield lows to the recent yield highs at 3.5%. This area remains key for the short-term.

This morning has seen risk trades recover in line with news that the Eurozone and IMF will take a more proactive stance to aid the Greeks. This involves the Europeans helping the Greeks to privatise national resources and enforce tax collection in exchange for more aid. Subsequently Greek yields have tightened aggressively allowing peripheral bond yields across the board to tighten in sympathy as contagion fears also dissipate. The major problem with these draconian measures is that the Greek people would want to aggressively preserve their own sovereignty and therefore these measures are likely to cause dissent. Greek opposition parties have been consistently dissenting to the austerity measures proposed by the incumbent government and it is unlikely that they will fall into line with these proposed measures. Therefore we would propose that this short-term relief for risk assets and bonds to be short-lived and expect to start to hear dissent over the week. Ultimately we believe that the Greeks will need to restructure their debt.

Bull View

Bulls will need to protect the 124.63-83 level if they are to build a base for further short-term bullish action. The market has now built value above here, and thus any deterioration to back below here may be significantly worrying for bulls.

Bear View

Bears will need to protect the 125.79-85 level, which coincides with the 2.96% yield level. If this is achieved they will need a swift move to back below the 124.63-83 level in order to signal that the recent move higher was short-term corrective action.

Futex View

We are bearish the German Bund in the medium- long term. The market has settled into a steady rhythm of weekly lower highs and lower lows since making the August 2010 highs. However, the ongoing issues in the Eurozone leave us to believe that a good short-term run higher is likely. If the bunds breach the 2.96% yield level or if the Eurozone debt issues deteriorate further we should see the medium term outlook adjust accordingly.

24th May 2011
Bond Overview

Bond markets have rallied firmly over the last week responding to the continued jitters emanating from the European periphery and the risk aversion trades seen across risk assets across the board. Yesterday, German Bunds hit the crucial 3.00% yield level and have eased back 5bp in relatively subdued trade.

Thoughts from the Trading Floor

From a technical perspective, German Bunds have potentially staged a key weekly reversal. The market has recovered from firm support at 3.5%, which coincided with the 119.85-95 area, and has closed in on the 3.00% yield level. This is a crucial medium term pivot for the market. If prices can continue through the 3.00% yield level, the market signals that it may have turned in the medium term to a firm bullish stance. Although we would expect the market to be relatively choppy around this level until we can get a firm confirmation. The market is also interestingly poised in the short-term. The 124.63-83 area provides immediate to short-term support. If the market can continue to hold above here, another test of the 3.00% mark, around 125.33, is likely today or tomorrow. Bulls will need to hold the market above here. A sharp deterioration below here may unnerve short-term bulls resulting in a deep move lower. At this point, we may see a short-medium term momentum shift back towards the bears. However, bears will then need a good confirmation with the break of the 123.58-82 support area for this scenario to play out.

The Bund market’s strength over recent 2-3 weeks can be put down to the tensions in the Eurozone debt crises. Friday saw a further development of this crisis. As European markets were spooked by another fresh deterioration in peripheral yields, a swift downgrade of Greek sovereign debt followed by Italy being placed on credit watch negative by Standard and Poor’s resulted in a sharp deterioration in risk assets on Monday morning. The spill over of these moves hit Asian markets on Monday morning, which had previously shown some semblance resilience over the last 2 weeks. This was the catalyst for a move towards the 3.00% yield level in German 10yr Bunds. This morning has now seen Belgium being placed on credit watch negative by Fitch. Although this had a muted effect n the markets, and Belgium’s political drama is well known, this is a sign that the ratings agencies are becoming aggressive with their dismal outlook on the Eurozone crisis and further action may follow across the board.

Bull View

Bulls will need to protect the 124.63-83 level if they are to build a base for further short-term bullish action. The market has now built value above here, and thus any deterioration to back below here may be significantly worrying for bulls.

Bear View

Bears will need to protect the 125.33 level. If this is achieved they will need a swift move to back below the 124.63-83 level in order to signal that the recent move higher was short-term corrective action.

Futex View

We are bearish the German Bund in the medium- long term. The market has settled into a steady rhythm of weekly lower highs and lower lows since making the August 2010 highs. However, the ongoing issues in the Eurozone leave us to believe that a good short-term run higher is likely. If the bunds breach the 3.00% yield level or if the Eurozone debt issues deteriorate further we should see the medium term outlook adjust accordingly.

17th May 2011
Bond Overview

Bond markets have been relatively subdued over the last week, trading with a slight upward trajectory, although unable to make significant ground higher. The market has been supported by weakness in risk assets across the board of late.

Thoughts from the Trading Floor

From a technical perspective, German Bunds have potentially staged a key weekly reversal. The market has recovered from firm support at 3.5%, which coincided with the 119.85-95 area, and is now closing in on the 3.00% yield level. The market has made a recent high around the 3.06% yield level, which is a key level on the German 10yr cash. This coincided with the 124.60-63 resistance area on the Bund futures. Thus, the market would need to take this area out soon in order to maintain its recent upward velocity. A failure to do so may see deterioration back to the 123.55-58 support level. A break below here, may signal that the recent short-term trend higher has run out of steam and signal that the medium-long term downtrend that the market has been in since August 2010 is to resume.

The Bund market’s strength over recent 2-3 weeks can be put down to the tensions in the Eurozone debt crises. We have seen a fresh deterioration in yields across the board almost on a daily basis, with peripheral yield spreads vs. German bunds broadly trading around Euro lifetime highs. With market confidence being hurt by the recent chatter regarding the possible restructuring of Greek debt, the Eurozone is now being forced into taking further measures to aid the clearly insolvent Greek government. Talk of instigating these measures has supported peripheral markets in the last 2-3 days. This has allowed bunds to ease back from the recent high prints. The potential tail-risks of allowing the Greeks to restructure are such that the market is now expecting further aid by the EU and IMF. Potentially this could be in the form of further loans extended to Greece. Although there has been talk of “re-profiling” Greek debt. This seems a vague concept at the moment. This may include lowering the interest that is being charged to Greece by the EU and IMF or extending the durations of the loans (thus allowing them to be solvent in the short-term a sort of debt holiday). A failure to implement fresh measure soon may have a disastrous consequence for risk assets, especially considering that some form of fresh aid has been priced in. However, again, this raises the contagion risks possibility. If Greece is given new aid measures, the Portuguese and Irish will almost certainly be knocking on the door for it also. If not, then the markets will ensure that they will be.

Bull View

Bulls will need to protect the 123.55-58 level if they are to build a base for further short-term bullish action. The market has now built value above here, and thus any deterioration to back below here may be significantly worrying for bulls.

Bear View

Bears will need to protect the 124.60-63 level. If this is achieved they will need a swift move to back below the 123.55 level in order to signal that the recent move higher was short-term corrective action.

Futex View

We are bearish the German Bund in the medium- long term. The market has settled into a steady rhythm of weekly lower highs and lower lows since making the August 2010 highs. However, the ongoing issues in the Eurozone leave us to believe that a good short-term run higher is likely. If the bunds breach the 3.00% yield level or if the Eurozone debt issues deteriorate further we should see the medium term outlook adjust accordingly.

10th May 2011
Bond Overview

Bond markets have been steadily moving higher over the last week, with last week’s ECB meeting and the continued issues regarding Greece being the catalyst for the recent break out higher in Bunds. German Bunds are now closing in on the 3.00% yield level.

Thoughts from the Trading Floor

From a technical perspective, German Bunds have potentially staged a key weekly reversal. The market has recovered from firm support at 3.5%, which coincided with the 119.85-95 area, and is now closing in on the 3.00% yield level. This would coincide with around the 124.60 level on the futures. If this level gives, the market may confirm that it has turned on the weekly timeframe and signal substantial gains over the coming weeks. The move through daily resistance, now support at 123.00 should continue to provide a firm base for further short term gains. Bulls will need to protect this level should the market have a deep pullback of this week’s gains. With the 3.00% yield level being such a key weekly pivot, we would expect choppy trade around here before we reach a conclusion of which side of the market is in control.

The Bund market’s strength over recent 2-3 weeks can be put down to the tensions in the Eurozone debt crises. We have seen a fresh deterioration in yields across the board almost on a daily basis, with peripheral yield spreads vs. German bunds broadly trading around Euro lifetime highs. The end of last week saw Bunds climb on the back of reports that the Greeks were seeking to leave the Eurozone raising the prospect of a restructuring of their debt. Although this has been denied by EU officials and publically by the Greeks, there is no smoke without fire. There now seems to be a move towards the inevitable conclusion that there will be a restructuring event of some sort in the coming months. However, it is likely that the EU will attempt to put across a package of increasing financial aid for Greece, either in terms of increasing the loans to Greece and/or easing the terms of the loans. This package may delay the restructuring to a few months down the line, although it seems that the complete lack of confidence in Greek debt has reached the tipping point where restructuring is inevitable. As per usual the last 2-3 days has seen reports f restructuring, aid packages, etc. with the usual denials and other conflicting messages released to the press. We have consistently seen this to be the case over the entire duration of the Eurozone debt crises. Invariably, in the long run, this too leads to a loss in confidence in the deeply flawed political system of Europe.

Bull View

Bulls will need to protect the 123.00 level if they are to build a base for further short-term bullish action. The market has now built value just below here, and thus any deterioration to back below here may be significantly worrying for bulls.

Bear View

Bears will need to protect the 124.60 level. If this is achieved they will need a swift move to back below the 123.00 level in order to signal that the recent move higher was short-term corrective action.

Futex View

We are bearish the German Bund in the medium- long term. The market has settled into a steady rhythm of weekly lower highs and lower lows since making the August 2010 highs. However, the ongoing issues in the Eurozone leave us to believe that a good short-term run higher is likely. If the bunds breach the 3.00% yield level or if the Eurozone debt issues deteriorate further we should see the medium term outlook adjust accordingly.