Focus on Oil

The Oil market has deteriorated rapidly over the last week with the market seeing a $8 drop. This price drop was also mirrored by declining equity market. (more…)

Focus on COMEX Copper futures (Sep’10)

The last 3 weeks has seen COMEX Copper market trend higher. The drive higher has been largely lead by the return of risk appetite in the markets and (more…)

Focus on Oil

WTI Futures staged a substantial decline towards the end of last week, leaving Oil futures on the backfoot fighting for support around $72. Major pressure has come from the equally poor performance of the equity market, dragging the market lower in its wake. (more…)

Focus on COMEX Copper futures (Sep’10)

The last week has seen choppy trade in the COMEX Copper market. (more…)

Focus on Oil

Over the last week WTI futures have began to consolidate gains to the upside and have started to develop a trading range pausing the upward trend from the lows in May. (more…)

Focus on Oil

Over the last five days WTI Oil futures have consolidated around the lows, (more…)

Focus on Oil

Over the last five days WTI Oil futures initially showed strength before coming under pressure and breaking below daily support levels. Despite this the market remains in a broad upward trend supported by strong equity markets and increasing optimism.

Thoughts from the trading floor

From a technical perspective the oil continues to stall unable to break 2010 highs at $87.09. Last Friday it closed below support at $83.95 (May contract) followed by a break of the $83.17 level on Monday. Yesterday the market posted a recovery although it does appear that a move to the downside in the short term appears the most likely. Below current trading, support exists at $79.90 and $78.00. Overall the market remains in a broad upward trend channel and at this stage it would be very hard to predict a change in this for the foreseeable future. If we were to see a break from this pattern we would first need to see oil trade below $72.50 or accelerate dramatically to the upside

Last night the American Petroleum Institute reported that US oil inventories fell 741K barrels last week. This compares to the analysts estimate for the DOE number of a 750K barrel fall. The API Gasoline showed a fall of 1743K opposed to the estimates for the DOE number of a 500K build. With the DOE oil inventory expectation so close to last night’s API number we are unlikely to see a surprise here. This will cause traders to shift their focus to the gasoline number which has a larger discrepancy and as a result may well be the driver when the DOE releases data today at 15.30.

Over the last week we have seen Western European skies filled with ash emanating from an Icelandic volcano. The result has been the cancellation of many flights for an indefinite period. The exact longevity of the disruption is not yet clear but several oil analysts have already pointed towards the fall in kerosene demand having a negative effect on crude oil prices. With geological experts predictions about the eruptions changing daily this may continue to provide some quick money trading opportunities.

Bull View

Bulls will be happy with yesterday’s strong recovery and will hope the easing in flight restrictions over Europe will provide a further boost. A break of $87.09 will be their target over the next week allowing a test of $90 later in the month.

Bear View

Bears will be happy to see the market continue to pullback but will be keen to capitalise on this short term shift in momentum. Their medium term goal should be to achieve a break of daily support at $78.00 as this may prove a pivotal level.

Futex View

We believe Oil will continue to broadly trend higher over the next couple of months so we continue to employ a strategy of buying dips. Our target for the current move is $90 and if this price is reached we may reconsider our position. Equity markets continue to be a good proxy for future Oil demand so we will take any large shifts in sentiment here seriously.

Focus on Oil

Over the last five days WTI Oil futures have rallied strongly breaking the 2010 highs at $83.95. (more…)

Focus on Oil

WTI Oil futures have continued to trade sideways over the last five days. On Monday the market did show some signs of strength closing just under $2 up on the day. (more…)

Focus on Oil

WTI Oil futures have continued to trade sideways over the last five days unable to hold onto any significant gains or losses. After dipping as low as $78.57 on Monday, the market quickly re-stabilised stability, trading back above $82 yesterday. (more…)