Last week equities performed strongly with the S&P 500 future setting new 2010 highs; peaking on Friday at 1241.50. This week sees a busy economic calendar with many releases.  Traders will be most concerned with the latest FOMC rate decision and US Retail Sales both released on Tuesday. (more...)

Last week equities performed very well with many indices posting new 2010 highs. The catalyst for the majority of these gains was a tightening in the European peripheral yield spreads as a result of aggressive ECB bond buying on Wednesday. This week will be relatively quiet in terms of macro releases with the BOE rate decision on Thursday the most significant. (more...)

Focus on Oil

The Crude Oil Market powered higher last week. NYMEX Crude Light futures put in a positive week, climbing at a rapid pace topping $82.99 yesterday. The market appears to have caught up with (more...)

Overview

Last week the S&P 500 Future remained resilient despite finding itself under some selling pressure following the Fed's warning that the recovery was still waning. (more...)

Focus on Oil

The oil market has been range-bound this last week, with neither bulls nor bears gaining control, despite volatile movements in the equity markets. There has been a new sense of independence in the (more...)

Overview

Last week was a very mixed bag for equities, some positive news on the earnings front particularly from JP Morgan was overshadowed by (more...)

Focus on Oil

WTI Oil futures have been under considerable pressure over the last five days dropping as low as $71.11 in yesterday's trade. The negative sentiment is being driven by the (more...)

The EuroStoxx traded higher yesterday buoyed by strong earnings from both Intel and JP Morgan. The market retested the important 2947-53 level, holding just below here into the close. The market was unable to match the US equity (more...)

Overview

Over the last five days we have seen equities continue to grind higher encouraged by improving global confidence. Yesterday’s close in the S&P 500 future at 1183.00 was the highest of 2010. This week the focus will be on Central Banks with rate decisions out of the BOE and ECB as well as FOMC minutes.

Thoughts from the trading floor

From a technical perspective equities remain strong with the upward momentum continuing. Yesterday the S&P 500 future closed above resistance at 1180.25 hinting that further moves to the upside are likely this week. The target still remains 1224.75, a level which lies close to a large inverse head and shoulders target and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the credit crunch down move. To the downside support at 1148.00 remains crucial. A break of here could easily result in a rapid move lower with 1127.00 remaining the critical support level.

Despite last Friday being a public holiday the latest non-farm payrolls report was released in the US. The number marginally missed expectations showing payrolls had risen 162k in March against expectations of 184k. Although equities initially blipped lower the realisation soon came that public sector hiring had made up a much smaller percentage of the gains than was expected, about 48k opposed to the expected 110k. This equated to a 123k jobs being created in the private sector, a fact that resulted in equities rallying strongly despite there being no change in the unemployment rate. As part of the shortened session on Friday the S&P 500 future closed at 1178.00, it’s highest of the year.

This week’s releases are dominated by rate decisions and the latest comment out of the world’s most important central banks. The Fed will release its latest FOMC minutes today followed by the ECB and BOE rate decisions on Thursday. Although we are not foreseeing any major shocks in these events we do believe that they may cause market participants to shift their focus towards the timetable for removal of monetary stimulus. This remains the great concern for all bulls and may affect the equity markets ability to push aggressively higher this week.

Important events this week.

• Tuesday: FOMC Minutes
• Thursday: BOE, ECB Rate Decisions

Bull View

Bulls will take a lot of confidence from the latest jobs report as it does appear to affirm that a recovery is ongoing in the private jobs market. Their goal will be to hold onto gains in the early part of the week before targeting 1224.75.

Bear View

Bears continue to find themselves under great pressure and will be concerned by the latest jobs data. Their greatest hope this week is that central banks display a more hawkish tone undermining some of the current optimism. Over the next few weeks their main goals will be reclaiming the 1160.00 and then 1148.00 levels.

Futex View

We believe equities will continue their bullish trend and will go on to challenge 1224.75 over the next few weeks. Although serious concerns remain within housing and future levels of consumer spending current optimism is far too dominant at this time. A buy dip strategy at present seems the safest play with levels at 1170.25, 1160.00 and 1148.00 providing good opportunity.

Welcome to January’s Futures Masters - Interviews with Futex Academy’s elite traders. This month, Senior Futex Trader Gabriele Gandini lifts the lid on his personal approach to trading. Gabriele has been a trader at Futex since 2007 and currently trades Dax and Crude Oil. (more...)