25th July 2011
Equity Overview

All in all, a pretty strong week for equity markets as traders sought comfort from the deal made by EU leaders on Thursday to help Greece, Ireland and Portugal in their attempts to recover from and repay the previously received bailout funds.

Thoughts from the trading floor

Last week saw a deal reached by EU leaders that allowed for a reduction in the interest payments made by Greece, Ireland and Portugal as well as more time to pay the debts off. Agreements were also made that allowed the EFSF to buy bonds on the secondary market, and extend credit lines to other countries that have so far avoided the need for a bailout, should they struggle to raise funds in the open market. This deal created a large bullish sentiment for the week as the S&P 500 futures closed the daily gaps previously left at 1329.25 and 1344.25, wiping out areas expected to provide strong resistance with relative ease.

The market squeezed through resistance seen at 1346.50 but only reached a high of 1347.75 before coming off slightly. The market gapped down over the weekend and during the Asian session as the impasse continued in the US between the two major parties negotiating a deal on the US debt ceiling. It seems strange that the markets have failed to pay more attention to this situation so far as we are now just over a week until the supposed 2nd August deadline to reach an agreement. European markets have again recovered this morning after opening much lower and it will be interesting to see if they manage to hold on up here or whether this is simply washing a few weak shorts out before they really make a decent move lower.

Resistance in the S&P500 futures lies first at 1335.00 before 1346.50 which is just below the recent high of 1347.75. A move back above here and we would really expect the yearly highs to be tested in the next few weeks. 1315.00-18.00 should act as good support if we do continue lower. 1306.00 may provide a small bounce but the major support in the market remains the 1290.00-93.50 level that we failed to break last week.

Important events this week.

● Monday: Texas Instrument earnings
● Tuesday: UK GDP, US Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales. Ford, 3M, Amazon
● Wednesday: US Durable Goods. Boeing
● Thursday: US Initial Claims, Penidng Home Sales. Motorola, Exxon Mobil
● Friday: US GDP, Chicago PMI. Aon, Chevron

Bull View
Having closed the daily pit session gaps previously left at the beginning of the month the market has removed the extremely bearish chart patterns. Though we have opened lower this week, a move back to the 1346.50 level and close above should lead to further buying with a test of the yearly highs eyed in the medium term.

Bear View
The bears have lost all momentum in the market, with even a lower open this morning failing to provide any follow through. Perhaps the biggest bearish play will come on the back of continued problems with talks over the US debt ceiling. A break of 1325.00 in the short term should lead to 1315.00-18.00 being tested soon after.

Futex View

We traded down to our important level last week at 1290.00-93.50 and since then we have seen an impressive bounce. Our bearish stance has been removed with the closing of the daily gaps, though we still see potential for moves lower as we approach the deadline for the US debt ceiling agreement. Another break above 1346.50 however, and we would expect a strong leg higher.

4th July 2011
Equity Overview

An extremely strong week for equity markets as Greece was once again in focus - this time with a vote on austerity measures. The S&P 500 futures broke important resistance at 1290.00-95.00 and continued to climb going into the end of the month and quarter.

Thoughts from the trading floor

The week started strongly for equity markets with many ‘front-running’ the vote by the Greek government in expectation that they would pass the vote on further drastic austerity measures. As the vote passed on Wednesday equities continued to climb with many market commentators believing there was an element of window dressing going on as we came into the end of the month and quarter. Friday saw further buying however as ISM Manufacturing data showed a strong reading - the first strong piece of US data for quite some time. All in all then the markets were up every day of the week and the S&P 500 futures posted it’s biggest weekly gain of the year. Volumes will be light on Monday as the US takes the day off to celebrate Independence Day and this could lead through most of the week as we are data-light until Non-Farm payrolls is released on Friday.

On a technical outlook the S&P 500 futures look very bullish having easily broken through all levels throughout most of last week. Next resistance to the upside comes in at 1346.00 and then 1356.50. With Friday’s NFP data being the main focal point of the week though, we may see some covering going into the numbers after the recent surge higher. Remember that before Friday’s ISM data was released June saw most manufacturing and jobs numbers missing consensus forecast and the NFP release will provide a key indicator going forward as to whether the ISM data was an anomaly or whether the US recovery is continuing, albeit at a slow pace. The previous key resistance at 1290.00-95.00 area now offers key support on the downside that may act as the markets pivot point. Before here however 1309.00-1313.00 should also attract some buyers should we dip down this week.

Important events this week.

● Monday: US Independence Day - Cash and Futures Pits closed
● Tuesday: EZ Serviced PMI’s, US factory orders
● Wednesday: DE Factory Orders
● Thursday: DE Industrial Production, BOE/ECB Interest rate Announcements, US Initial Claims, ADP Employment data, ISM Non-Manufacturing
● Friday: US NFP Jobs Report

Bull View
After a very strong week the bulls have the momentum again and will be looking for further gains with little data out before Friday’s jobs report. As long as the market remains above 1290.00-95.00 the bulls are in control but attention turns to resistance at 1346.00 - if this can be broken then the yearly highs will not be far off.

Bear View
After failing to break the lows made down at 1256.00 the bears could not stop the market from surging higher last week. They will need to defend the important 1346.00 level if we trade higher. The target for the bears must be to get the market back below 1309.00-1313.00 with a view to testing the 1290.00-95.00 area.

Futex View

Having seen such a strong buy up of equity markets it is hard to remain bearish and when the important 1290.00-95.00 was broken the bulls took control. As this week is data light the markets could continue to drift higher but there we expect to see some form of covering going into Friday’s important NFP release - this is key going forward for the market.

20th June 2011
Equity Overview

Equities tried to bounce back in the early part of last week but could not break resistance at 1293.00 and sold off again back down to support at 1258.00. After bouncing off this level the markets have opened down this morning after more worried about Greece.

Thoughts from the trading floor

Technically the S&P 500 futures still look fairly bearish as the markets have failed to hold on to any gains made in the last few sessions. The market failed at key resistance last week and the 1290-95 level to the upside is now an important tipping point. While the market remains below here traders will be selling into any strength. We briefly traded through resistance at 1273-75 on Friday but could not close above here and sold off going into the close. The selling continued overnight and so far this morning, the markets are yet to bounce. 1273-75 remains resistance in the short term, with minor resistance also seen at 1268.50-69.00.

The market is currently trading just below the 1258.00 level and below here the market will eye the low made in March in the wake of the earthquake in Japan at 1247.00. This will be a key test for the market. A break below this level could lead to a much bigger correction many currently think. 12.34.00 is the next level below here. In Europe the FTSE 100 futures mirror the chart of the S&P 500 with the March’s low at 5503 now in sight and the major support to the downside. Above here 5585 should also act as support. To the upside the first point of resistance is the 5585-95 level and above here 5658-65.

The Dax in Germany has held up relatively well in the face of the crises in Greece and is a long way off the low’s made in March, though the Dax was particularly hit hard after Japan and sold off far more strongly than any other equity market at the time. A series of lows between 6990 and 7040 are the key support here and a break below here should lead to further losses with little in the way of support until 6880-6905. The key level lower is 6848.

Important events this week.

● Tuesday: German ZEW, US Existing Home Sales
● Wednesday: EU Industrial Orders, US FOMC Interest rate announcement and press conference.
● Thursday: US Initial Claims, New Home Sales
● Friday: German IFO Survey, US Durable Goods orders, GDP (Final)

Bull View
The key level for the bulls is 1290-95 as below here there will be plenty of sellers in the market. If the market continues to sell off and the bulls do not defend the they key 1246.50 March low there could be more pain ahead.

Bear View
The bears still have the momentum and if they can break support at 1258.00 then a test of 1246.50 is surely likely. It will also be important to defend any buying up to 1268.50-69.00 and 1273-75.

Futex View
We are still bearish the equity markets but would like to see the market reaction around 1246.50 before looking for further downside moves. The market sentiment this week will likely centre around Greece again so any good news regarding the situation could see a fair amount short covering.

13th June 2011
Equity Overview

Another damaging week last week for the equity markets saw the S&P futures give back another 30 handles over the week. Continued fears over the European debt situation and in particular Greece, continue to provide the back drop for a worried market.

Thoughts from the trading floor

Volume in the S&P 500 futures has now moved to the September contract so we will be quoting numbers from here going forward. June is currently trading at a 5 handle premium to September. European futures will roll later in the week but for now the June contract is still trading the most volume. All June equity contracts go off the board on Friday.

The S&P 500 continued it’s slide last week and has taken out some key levels over the past two weeks. Thursday’s rebound proved to be just short covering as the market again made new lows in Friday’s session at 1261.75. The next major support is at 1253.00 before the lows made in March on the back of the earthquake in Japan come into play at 1238.00-42.00. If the bulls are to regain control of the market they must retake the 1285.00 level but there is resistance above here at 1274.00-78.00.

Equity markets in Europe have fared slightly better in this down move. The Dax future tested the low made on 18th April last week but could only make a false break and is still trading above here this morning. If the 6996.0-7009.0 level breaks then expect to see a further leg lower, with the next major support coming in at 6885.0. The FTSE futures are trading around the key 5778.0 level this morning and today’s trade and close could be key. A second close below this level, especially if today’s close is below Friday’s low at 5737.0 should open the door for a further sell off with 5686 eyed next. If the market can regain the 5800.0 handle then some weak shorts may be forced to cover leading to a more protracted bounce.

Important events this week.

● Tuesday: UK CPI, US PPI, Retail Sales
● Wednesday: EU Industrial Production, US CPI, Empire Manufacturing
● Thursday: UK Retail Sales, US Initial Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed Survey
● Friday: US Michigan Sentiment, Equity Rollovers (FTSE 10:15am, Eurostoxx 11:00am, Dax 12:00pm)

Bull View

The bulls need to get the market back above the 1274.00-78.00 level and force weak longs to cover if they are to create any sort of bounce from here.

Bear View
The momentum is fully with the bears and they will look to break Friday’s low and test downside support at 1253.00 initially. As long as the market is trading below 1290.00 momentum is still down.
Futex View

We are still bearish equities in the short term and expect a test of 1253.00 this week. We favour selling into bounces up towards 1290.00 and before here 1274.00-78.00.

23rd May 2011
Equity Overview

Equities sold off hard on Friday after a fairly volatile week. After the S&P 500 future touched 1316.00 on Tuesday they bounced quite strongly, topping out at 1345.50 before Friday’s sell off on continued European debt fears.

Thoughts from the trading floor

After an impressive bounce from Tuesday’s lows the equity markets sold off strongly during in Friday’s session with the Dax particularly hit hard as fears grew over the European debt situation. This culminated in an outlook downgrade by Standard and Poor’s rating agency on Italy from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’. The S&P 500 futures sold off nearly 20 full handles from Thursday’s high at 1345.50, closing at 1327.50. This sell off continued overnight during the Asian session and into early morning trade in Europe, with the June contract currently trading around 1318.00. This is just two handles above the low made last Tuesday at 1316.00 which may act as short term support this morning.

Below here the next major level is at 1290.00-92.00 but there are plenty of small levels before here (1308.50, 1300.00 and 1298.00). Sometimes this can lead to a slow grind lower as all the levels attract short term buyers but if Friday’s price action is anything to go buy you could see these all wiped out in fairly quick succession should the market fail to bounce this morning. In recent weeks we have seen the markets continually make moves lower only to see aggressive bounces so we would like to see the market continue to sell off today if we are to gain any sort of momentum in one direction. Failing that, we could see another bounce to the 1325.00 level. Above here there is further resistance at 1332.50.

With Friday’s move mainly attributed to growing fears over the European debt situation the S&P downgrade of Italy’s outlook late in Friday’s session will do nothing to quell investor fears. There has also been talk this morning that Greece only has enough money to last until mid-July and will need another tranche of the EU loan this month.With these fears prevalent in the market place we could see some big moves on the back of rumours, as well as quotes and denials from senior EU officials. As commodities have remained relatively strong over the past week, the FTSE 100 has been the stronger of the European equity markets. Keep an eye out for major support at 5816.00-30.00. A break below here could cause another big leg lower. The Dax and Eurostoxx where somewhat weaker during the sell-off, owing mainly to the number of European banks in the indices. If fears continue this week these markets should again see increased downside pressure.

Important events this week.

● Tuesday: German IFO Survey, EU Industrial Orders, US New Home Sales
● Wednesday: UK GDP (2nd est.), US Durable Goods Orders
● Thursday: US Initial Claims, GDP
● Friday: US Michigan Sentiment, Pending Home Sales

Bull View
After Friday’s sell-off and failure to bounce this morning things are looking worrying for the bulls. They will look to defend last week’s low of 1316.00 and below here use support levels down to 1300.00 as buying opportunities. A failure to meaningfully break 1316.00 and we could see a bounce up to 1325.00 and further, 1332.00.

Bear View
Bears will be encouraged by the continuation of Friday’s move and will try to break the 1316.00 level in Monday’s trade. A significant break of this low targets 1298.00 initially, with major support at 1290.00-92.00 the next target.

Futex View

Short term we see markets trading lower on the growing fears in Europe. We would expect any tests to the upside at 1325.00 to hold and look for bigger moves down to the major support at 1290.00-1300.00 this week.

16th May 2011
Equity Overview

Since selling off after making new highs at the beginning of the month the equity markets has been predominantly range bound for the last week, though increased volatility has seen some large and fast moves taking place. The S&P 500 future is this morning trading around 1330.00 - close to the lows of the trading range.

Thoughts from the trading floor

For the last two weeks equity markets have been mainly range bound, with the S&P 500 futures support coming in around 1325.00 and resistance at 1358.00. Within this area we have seen some violent moves however, with both strong bounces and sell-offs when the market has hit these levels. Much of the volatility has come about due to the large moves seen in the commodity markets which have often led to big moves across all asset classes including currencies, bonds and equities. Neither the bulls nor bears are creating sustained momentum at the moment and we are seeing these sharp moves take place as market participants try and gain control of the market.

We would need to see a clear break of the recent support or resistance levels before and medium term direction can be determined. As well as lows printed at 1325.25 we have further support in the form of a daily trend line which today comes in at 1328.00. We have briefly traded below that line this morning but the reaction of the market during cash trading hours this afternoon could be key. The line is drawn from the low made on 17 March in the wake of the Earthquake in Japan through the low made on 18 April after Standard and Poor’s rating agency downgraded the US outlook to negative. A firm break through this line, and through the recent support could see an extended move to the 1291.00-98.00 levels.

The biggest event risk to the equity markets remains the sovereign debt crises in the Eurozone, with any debt restructuring from Greece or Ireland having a big impact on the regions banks and financial institutions. Any news in this form and we expect the FTSE and the Dax to under perform their US counterparts. The Ftse 100 future is already underperforming as the commodity rout has hurt the natural resource companies the most. Look out for the market reaction if it touches the head and shoulders neckline (from the lows made on 18 April and 5 May) which currently comes in at 5856.00. A move below here and a close below 5816.00 on the daily and the long term target is 200 ticks lower.

Important events this week.

● Monday: Empire Manufacturing Survey
● Tuesday: UK CPI, German ZEW, US Housing Starts, Industrial Production
● Wednesday: UK BoE Minutes, US FOMC Minutes
● Thursday: US Initial Claims, Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Survey

Bull View
We are still trading above the 1325.00 support and close to the highs made in April around 1335.00. Having touched the daily trend line this morning the bulls will look to cause another market bounce of these support levels with an eye to breaking 1353.00-58.00.

Bear View
Having sold off after new highs were made at the beginning of May the market has not manage to gain any momentum back to the upside and has tested support three times now on the daily chart. Bears will look to break the trend line and close below 1325.00, with a view to testing the 1291.00-98.00 levels.

Futex View

While in this range of the past two weeks, we would favour trading the range with tight stops. We remain cautious to a bigger down move should 1325.00 fail to hold again in the early part of this week. Keep an eye on commodities as equities have tended to trade in tandem with Oil etc during the last few volatile sessions.

9th May 2011
Equity Overview

Equities sold off last week ask we saw a huge liquidation in commodities across the board. The market was looking to recover on Friday afternoon after the positive Non-Farm Payroll report from the US, but the move was tempered by rumours that Greece may need to leave the Euro currency due to ongoing debt fears.

Thoughts from the trading floor

Since the high made in the S&P 500 Future in the wake of Osama Bin Laden’s confirmed killing the market has been gradually selling off. This picked up steam last weak as commodities sold off hard from their highs with some of the biggest daily falls seen in months. On Wednesday equities seemed to be in free fall as Oil made new lows but a strong bounce into the close leaves the low made at 1325.25 a key level to the downside. Before here there is minor support at 1332.00. Friday’s post-NFP high remains short term resistance at 1352.00.

Despite the German Dax Future posting four strong down days last week the market did recover on slightly on Friday and remains relatively bullish on the technical outlook, with the market still trading just above February’s highs at 7445. Support to the downside is seen at 7355 and furthermore at 7293-7310. There is a daily gap on the chart at between 7281 and 7291. As long as the market remains above this level the market looks strong.

The major risk scenario to the equity markets lies in familiar territories - European Sovereign Debt. After some strong market moves after Friday’s NFP release rumours began to circulate that Greece may need leave the Euro altogether in order to get it’s public finances back in shape. Though clearly denied over the weekend, these rumours continue to float around the market with debt restructuring by some of the smaller Eurozone nations at the very least seeming like the only real way out of this problem in the long term. While the EU can bat away these fears the market will remain fairly resilient, but sharp pull backs may occur if eventually countries have to restructure.

Important events this week.

● Tuesday: US Wholesale Inventories
● Wednesday: US Trade Balance
● Thursday: US Initial Claims, PPI, Retail Sales
● Friday: US CPI, Michigan Sentiment

Bull View
Despite a sharp sell off last week the market made an impressive bounce off off 1325.25 in the S&P 500 Future and as long as the market remains above here, the bulls will be confident of pushing higher and retesting Friday’s highs.

Bear View
The medium term momentum is with the bears and they will surely look to retest Thursday’s lows. A break through here and 1298.00 is the next big level to the downside.

Futex View

We remain bullish equities in the long term but are cautious of short term pull backs to the downside as commodities remain volatile and fears over the European Debt situation persist. We would like to see 1325.25 hold to create a base from which to buy.

6th May 2011
Market Overview
Focus on Yesterday’s Risk-off trade

Yesterday we saw a huge liquidation of longs across the board in commodities, while the dollar strengthened and equities also saw a sell off. We have seen a continuation in some of these moves this morning and Non Farm Payroll release later will be keenly eyed.

Thoughts from the trading floor

So yesterday was a huge day across most of the major asset classes, but the biggest moves were felt in the commodity market. WTI Crude Light Oil futures dropped as much as $11 a barrel at one point; Gold had it’s biggest down day in 2011 and silver continued it’s steep decline after CME hiked margin requirements for the fourth time in eight sessions. Silver has now dropped over 30% in the last week alone. With the dollar strengthening across all major currencies the biggest move was seen against the Euro - a move from 1.4900 to around 1.4500 seen in the last two days. The moves we are seeing are some major risk-off trades and we have to wonder whether a bigger move is at play here. In context, equity markets managed to hold up relatively well in the madness. Though the S&P500 futures were in free fall at one point last night, falling 18 handles in just half an hour, they managed to recover half that move going into the close.

The NFP release later today could be key for the markets going forward. With risk trades firmly off the agenda currently, a weaker reader reading, especially if significantly weaker could see another sell off across the board. The numbers don’t look good either. Yesterday’s weekly initial claims number in the US showed the worst reading since August 2010. That figure does not fall in this months NFP release but the overall trend over the last month has been up in initial claims. Most data points over the last two weeks have been relatively poor out of the US and with some believing that QE2 will not be extended beyond the June expiry, this could be the start of a broader sell off in the markets that have seen the biggest gains since March 2009 - equities, commodities and currencies against the dollar.

Some of the closing levels could also give indication to some of the market moves. Crude Light Oil has dropped another $5 a barrel this morning, with lows posted at $94.63 currently. There will need to be an impressive bounce this afternoon if the negative sentiment is to be removed from the market. At the moment we are seeing large sell offs with little in the way of buyers anywhere. With such a steep sell off over the last week we may see some covering going into the weekend but this remains to be seen. The FTSE 100 futures has lagged the other major equity markets, owing mainly to the large number of financials and basic resources companies listed in the index - the markets most affected in the risk off trade this week. The S&P 500 and Dax futures though have remained relatively strong but the NFP release later will dominate the moves in these markets. Closing levels in relation to the strength or weakness of the number could be a key indicator for momentum going forward.

● Non Farm Payroll released at 13:30 BST
● Expected at 185k, Private Payrolls at 200k

Bull View
In Oil, the bulls will have to keep the June contract above $92.00 a barrel and look to build again from there. If the S&P 500 future can leave its low print of 1325.25 from yesterday in place, the bulls will look to take the market back towards the 1347.00-50.00 levels.

Bear View
The bears have well and truly taken control over the last two days, in commodities especially. A key for the Oil market would be a close below the $100.00 level but anything below $102.00 and they will remain in control. If we see a poor reading out of the NFP release later, we could see further big sell offs in equities and commodities. If they can take the S&P 500 future through yesterday’s lows with a meaningful break then 1298.00-1300.00 will be eyed next.

Futex View

We have been bullish Oil and equities for a long time now and saw significant new highs made at the beginning of last week. Since then though we have seen some major sell offs and we will look to see how this afternoon plays out after the NFP release. As mentioned before, the closing levels in some of the markets in relation to the NFP number could give us an indication of future moves.

18th April 2011
Equity Overview
Focus on Dax Futures

A strong bounce since the lows made last Monday have seen the Dax gain nearly 500 points and finally broke the yearly highs last night after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s first interest rate press conference provided a further boost to equities and piled more pressure on the dollar.

Thoughts from the trading floor

After making yearly highs in mid February the German Dax had the biggest pullback of the major indices in the aftermath of the Japan Earthquake, making a low on 16th March of 6436. Since then the market has had an incredibly strong bounce. This morning the Dax Future is trading around 7480, an impressive 1000 point bounce in just six weeks. Previous yearly highs of 7450 were broken last night on the back of a doveish Bernanke press conference, which saw big moves in the dollar, commodity and equity markets.

Technically the Dax looks strong and has the potential for another big move up over the long term. Having broken the daily reverse head and shoulders pattern on 20th April the Dax has surged higher and yesterday provided confirmation of the move with a break above the highs of the year. If the market can close above the highs today, the long term pattern is for a another leg up in equities.

This is not to say that it will be one way traffic. After such a quick move to the highs, a pullback of some sorts cannot be ruled out especially as we approach the end of the month and long weekend in both the UK and Europe. There may be some traders and institutions looking to take profits at this level. As long as the market stays above the neckline though, the market remains bullish. For reference, the long term technical target of this move is 8125, just 125 points away from the all time highs made in December ‘07.

In the short term the outlook is less clear. We are wary of such a strong run up in equity prices over the last few weeks and days especially. We will look to see if the market makes a strong break of the highs or if indeed there is some resistance at these levels. Short term support in the Dax June contract lies at 7355 and further at 7265.

Bull View
After breaking the daily reverse head and shoulders pattern the market is long term bullish. If the bulls can keep the market above the recent highs for a few sessions, the short term target will then be 7770.

Bear View
The bears have struggled recently and will have to defend these recent highs if they are to gain any momentum back. If they can get the market back below 7400 they will look to test 7265 initially. A break back below the neckline of the head and shoulder would be a meaningful downward move.

Futex View

We have been long term bullish equities for a while and now and continue to be so. With the weakness in the dollar across the board, and the reactions to bad news often proving only temporary stumbling blocks, the market has shown remarkable strength. Though there may be some small pullbacks from the current levels we expect the Dax future to break higher in the coming months.

18th April 2011

Equity Overview

It was a quiet week last week for Equities, with the market posting small losses. The market recovered from lows made early on Thursday afternoon and was mainly range bound over the week.

Thoughts from the trading floor

The market was predominantly range bound last week with little in the way of news providing any sentiment or direction. The S&P 500 future made a high on the week on Monday at 1330.25 before coming under some small selling pressure during the week. Lows were made on early on Thursday afternoon at 1298.25 before the market made a strong bounce going into the close. This low was just two full ticks through the low of 1300.25 made on March 29th and will provide short term support for the June contract. If this area holds the market will look to get back up towards the highs of 1336.50 but should we see a further break lower then the bears will target the 1280-84.50 area. How the market reacts around here will be key.

European equities were a similar picture with the German Dax future making two attempts to break lower on Tuesday and Thursday before bouncing off 7100-15. This will act as short term support before bigger levels at 7070-80 will come into play. The June contract has a daily trend line coming in from the high made on 7th April, currently at 7205. The market will need to get through here and break April’s highs of 7262 if it is to keep it’s bullish momentum.

On Monday morning we saw news break from a senior IMF source that Greece had asked for a change in the terms of its loans and restructuring some of it’s debt. This was soon denied by the country. There has been talk in the market of this happening for some time now but markets sold off initially on the news, with the Dax future dropping 60 points and the FTSE 100 future 40. The problems of the weaker Eurozone countries are still far from over and the markets are still prone to big moves off of this bad news, and provides the biggest danger to a continued recovery in the markets and the world economy as a whole.

Important events this week.

Tuesday: US Housing Starts
Wednesday: UK BOE Minutes released, US Existing Home Sales
Thursday: UK retail Sales, US Initial Claims and Philly Fed
Friday: World Market Holiday

Bull View

In the S&P 500 future, after failing to significantly break support at 1300.25 the bulls will target the top of last weeks range at 1330 before having another go at the highs of the year at 1336.50.

Bear View

The bears will look to take advantage of any further bad news coming out of the Eurozone economy and take the market back through short term support at 1300.25 (S&P 500) and 7110-15 (Dax). Breaks below here will pave the way for further selling.

Futex View

We are still bullish equities in general in the long term and expect the yearly highs to be tested and broken in the coming months. With volumes low and the Easter market holiday at the end of the week though, we expect the market to be relatively quiet and will look to trade the range of the S&P 500 between 1300 and 1320.